All publications


Crowther MJ, Royston P, Clements M. A flexible parametric accelerated failure time model. (Pre-print).

Crowther MJ. Simulating time-to-event data from parametric distributions, custom distributions, competings risk models and general multi-state models. (Pre-print).

Crowther MJ. Extended multivariate generalised linear and non-linear mixed effects models. (Pre-print).


Achana F, Gallacher D, Oppong RA, Kim S, Petrou S, Mason J, Crowther MJ. Multivariate generalised linear mixed-effects models for analysis of clinical trial-based cost-effectiveness data. Medical Decision Making 2021; (Accepted).

Glimelius I, Ekström Smedby K, Albertsson-Lindblad A, Crowther MJ, Eloranta S, Jerkeman M, Weibull CE. Mantle cell lymphoma patients unmarried or with low education are less often transplanted leading to lower survival. Blood Advances 2021; (Accepted).

Weibull CE, Lambert PC, Eloranta S, Andersson TML, Dickman PW, Crowther MJ. A multistate model incorporating estimation of excess hazards and multiple time scales. Statistics in Medicine 2021; (Accepted). (Pre-print).

Curnow E, Hughes R, Birnie K, Crowther MJ, May M, Tilling K. Multiple imputation strategies for a bounded outcome variable in a competing risks analysis. Statistics in Medicine 2021; (In Press).

Hothorn T, Bopp M, Gunthard HF, Keiser O, Roelens M, Weibull CE, Crowther MJ. Assessing relative COVID-19 mortality: a Swiss population-based study. BMJ Open 2021;11:e042387.

Brilleman S, Wolfe R, Moreno-Betancur M, Crowther MJ. Simulating survival data using the simsurv package in R. Journal of Statistical Software 2021;97:3.

Hill M, Lambert PC, Crowther MJ. Relaxing the assumption of constant transition rates in a multi-state model in hospital epidemiology. BMC Medical Research Methodology 2021;21:16.


Crowther MJ. merlin - a unified framework for data analysis and methods development in Stata. Stata Journal 2020;20(4):763-784. (Pre-print:

Gasparini A, Morris TP, Crowther MJ. INTEREST: INteractive Tool for Exploring REsults from Simulation sTudies. Journal of Data Science, Statistics, and Visualisation 2020; (Accepted) Pre-print.

Philipson P, Hickey GL, Crowther MJ, Kolamunnage-Dona R. Faster Monte Carlo estimation of semiparameteric joint models for time-to-event and multivariate longitudinal data. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 2020; (In Press).

Harhay MO, Gasparini A, Walkey AJ, Weissman GE, Crowther MJ, Ratcliffe SJ, Russell JA, on behalf of the Vasopressin and Septic Shock Trial (VASST) Investigators. Assessing the Course of Organ Dysfunction Using Joint Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Modeling in the Vasopressin and Septic Shock Trial. Crit Care Expl 2020; 2:e0104.

Posch F, Riedl J, Reitter EM, Crowther MJ, Grilz E, Quehenberger P, Jilma B, Pabinger I, Ay C. Dynamic assessment of venous thromboembolism risk in patients with cancer by longitudinal D-Dimer analysis: A prospective study. J Thromb Haemost 2020;18(6):1348-1356.

Ashra N, Mariott L, Johnson S, Abrams KR, Crowther MJ. Jointly modelling longitudinally measured urinary human chorionic gonadotrophin and early pregnancy outcomes. Scientific Reports 2020;10(1):4589.

Gasparini A, Abrams KR, Barrett JK, Major JK, Sweeting MJ, Brunskill NJ, Crowther MJ. Mixed effects models for healthcare longitudinal data with an informative visiting process: a Monte Carlo simulation study. Statistica Neerlandica 2020;74(1):5-23 (Pre-print:


Bower H, Crowther MJ, Rutherford MJ, Andersson TML, Clements M, Liu X, Dickman PW, Lambert PC. Capturing simple and complex time-dependent effects using flexible parametric survival models: A simulation study. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation 2019; (Early View).

Crowther MJ. Multilevel mixed effects parametric survival analysis: Estimation, simulation and application. Stata Journal 2019;19(4):931-949. (Pre-print:

Gasparini A, Clements MS, Abrams KR, Crowther MJ. Impact of model misspecification in shared frailty survival models. Statistics in Medicine 2019;38(23):4477-4502. (Pre-print:

Conrado DJ, Larkindale J, Berg A, Hill M, Burton J, Abrams KR, Abresch RT, Bronson A, Chapman D, Crowther M, Duong T, …, the Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Regulatory Science Consortium (D-RSC). Towards regulatory endorsement of drug development tools to promote the application of model-informed drug development in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Journal of Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics 2019;46(5):441-455.

Harhay MO, Ratcliffe SJ, Small DS, Suttner LH, Crowther MJ, Halpern SD. Measuring and Analyzing Length of Stay in Critical Care Trials. Medical Care 2019;57(9):e53–e59.

Morris TP, White I, Crowther MJ. Using simulation studies to evaluate statistical methods. Statistics in Medicine 2019;38(11):2074-2102.

Harhay MO, Porcher R, Thabut G, Crowther MJ, DiSanto T, Rubin S, Penfil Z, Bing Z, Christie JD, Diamond JM, Cantu E. Donor Lung Sequence Number and Survival after Lung Transplantation in the United States. Annals of the American Thoracic Society 2019;16(3):313-320.

Brilleman SL, Moreno-Betancur M, Polkinghorne KR, McDonald SP, Crowther MJ, Thomson J, Wolfe R. Changes in Body Mass Index and Rates of Death and Transplant in Hemodialysis Patients: A Latent Class Joint Modeling Approach. Epidemiology 2019;30(1):38-47.


Brilleman SL, Crowther MJ, Moreno-Betancur M, Novik J, Dunyak J, Al-Huniti N, Fox R, Hammerbacher J, Wolfe R. Joint longitudinal and time-to-event models for multilevel hierarchical data. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2018; (In Press).

Harhay MO, Porcher R, Cantu E, Crowther MJ, Christie JD, Thabut G, Donaldson GC. An Alternative Approach for the Analysis of Time-to-event and Survival Outcomes in Pulmonary Medicine. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2018;198(5):684-687.

Bower H, Andersson TML, Crowther MJ, Dickman PW, Lambe M, Lambert PC. Adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: An example using socioeconomic status. Am J Epidemiol 2018;187(4):828-836.

Latimer NR, Abrams KR, Lambert PC, Morden JP, Crowther MJ. Assessing methods for dealing with treatment crossover in clinical trials: a follow-up simulation study. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2018;27(3):765-784.


Crowther MJ, Lambert PC. Parametric multi-state survival models: flexible modelling allowing transition-specific distributions with application to estimating clinically useful measures of effect differences. Statistics in Medicine 2017;36(29):4719-4742.

Sayers A, Crowther MJ, Judge A, Whitehouse MR, Blom A. Determining the sample size required to establish whether a medical device is non-inferior to an external benchmark. BMJ Open 2017;7:e015397.

Andersson TM-L, Crowther MJ, Czene K, Hall P, Humphreys K. Mammographic density reduction as a prognostic marker for postmenopausal breast cancer; results using a joint longitudinal-survival modelling approach. American Journal of Epidemiology 2017;186(9):1065-1073.

Wu Z, Lin C, Crowther M, Mak H, Yu M, Leung CK-S. Impact of rates of change of lamina cribosa and optic nerve head surface depths on visual field progression in glaucoma. Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science 2017;58(3):1825-1833.

Hua H, Burke D, Crowther MJ, Ensor J, Tudur-Smith C, Riley RD. One-stage individual participant data meta-analysis models: estimation of treatment-covariate interactions must avoid ecological bias by separating out within-trial and across-trial information. Statistics in Medicine 2017;36(5):772-789.

Lambert PC, Wilkes SR, Crowther MJ. Flexible parametric modelling of the cause-specific cumulative incidence function. Statistics in Medicine 2017;36(9):1429-1446.

Marriott L, Zinaman M, Abrams KR, Crowther MJ, Johnson S. Analysis of urinary human chorionic gonadotrophin levels in normal and failing pregnancies using longitudinal, Cox proportional hazards and two-stage modelling. Annals of Clinical Biochemistry 2017;54(5):548-557.

Latimer NR, Abrams KR, Lambert PC, Crowther MJ, Wailoo AJ, Morden JP, Akehurst RL, Campbell MJ. Adjusting for treatment switching in randomised controlled trials - a simulation study and simplified two-stage method. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 2017;26(2):724-751.


Bower H, Crowther MJ, Lambert PC. strcs: A command for fitting flexible parametric survival models on the log-hazard scale. The Stata Journal 2016;16(4):989-1012.

Brilleman SL, Crowther MJ, May MT, Gompels M, Abrams KR. Joint longitudinal hurdle and time-to-event models: an application related to viral load and duration of the first treatment regimen in patients with HIV initiating therapy. Statistics in Medicine 2016;35(20):3583–3594.

Asaria M, Walker S, Palmer S, Gale CP, Shah AD, Abrams KR, Crowther M, Manca A, Timmis A, Hemingway H, Sculpher M. Using electronic health records to predict costs and outcomes in chronic disease using the example of stable coronary artery disease. Heart 2016;102:755-762.

Walker S, Asaria M, Manca A, Palmer S, Gale CP, Shah A, Abrams KR, Crowther MJ, Timmis A, Hemingway H, Sculpher M. Long-term health care use and costs in patients with stable coronary artery disease: a population-based cohort using linked health records (CALIBER). European Heart Journal - Quality of Care and Clinical Outcomes 2016;2(2):125-140.

Crowther MJ, Andersson TM-L, Lambert PC, Abrams KR and Humphreys K. Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data: Incorporating delayed entry and an assessment of model misspecification. Statistics in Medicine 2016;35(7)1193-1209.


Kandala NB, Connock M, Pulikottil-Jacob R, Sutcliffe P, Crowther MJ, Grove A, Mistry H, Clarke A. Setting benchmark revision rates for total hip replacement: analysis of registry evidence. BMJ 2015;350:h756.

Crowther MJ, Lambert PC. Reply to Letter to the Editor by Remontet et al. Statistics in Medicine 2015;34(25):3378-3380.

Clarke A, Pulikottil-Jacob R, Grove A, Freeman K, Mistry H, Tsertsvadze A, Connock M, Court R, Kandala NB, Costa M, Suri G, Metcalfe D, Crowther M, Morrow S, Johnson S, Sutcliffe P. Total hip replacement and surface replacement for the treatment of pain and disability resulting from end-stage arthritis of the hip (review of technology appraisal guidance 2 and 44): systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment 2015;19(10).

Gould AL, Boye ME, Crowther MJ, Ibrahim JG, Quartey G, Micallef S, Bois FY. Responses to discussants of ‘Joint modeling of survival and longitudinal non-survival data: current methods and issues. Report of the DIA Bayesian joint modelling working group’. Statistics in Medicine 2015;34(14):2202-2203.

Gould AL, Boye ME, Crowther MJ, Ibrahim JG, Quartey G, Micallef S, Bois FY. Joint modelling of survival and longitudinal non-survival data: current methods and issues. Report of the DIA Bayesian joint modelling working group. Statistics in Medicine 2015;34(14):2181-2195.

Rutherford MJ, Crowther MJ, Lambert PC. The use of restricted cubic splines to approximate complex hazard functions in the analysis of time-to-event data: a simulation study. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 2015;85(4)777-793.


Crowther MJ, Lambert PC. A general framework for parametric survival analysis. Statistics in Medicine 2014;33(30):5280-5297.

Crowther MJ, Look MP, Riley RD. Multilevel mixed effects parametric survival models using adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature with application to recurrent events and individual participant data meta-analysis. Statistics in Medicine 2014;33(22):3844-3858.

Latimer NR, Abrams KR, Lambert PC, Crowther MJ, Wailoo AJ, Morden JP, Akehurst RL, Campbell MJ. Adjusting survival time estimates to account for treatment switching in randomised controlled trials – an economic evaluation context: Methods, limitations and recommendations. Medical Decision Making 2014;34(3):387-402.


Crowther MJ, Lambert PC, Abrams KR. Adjusting for measurement error in baseline prognostic biomarkers included in a time-to-event analysis: A joint modelling approach. BMC Medical Research Methodology 2013;13:146.

Crowther MJ, Lambert PC. Simulating biologically plausible complex survival data. Statistics in Medicine 2013;32(23):4118-4134.

Crowther MJ, Lambert PC. stgenreg: A Stata package for general parametric survival analysis. Journal of Statistical Software 2013;53(12).

Crowther MJ, Hinchliffe SR, Donald A, Sutton AJ. Simulation-based sample size calculations for designing new clinical trials and diagnostic test accuracy studies to update an existing meta-analysis. The Stata Journal 2013;13(3):451-473.

Hinchliffe SR, Crowther MJ, Phillips RS, Sutton AJ. Using meta-analysis to inform the design of subsequent studies of diagnostic test accuracy. Research Synthesis Methods 2013;4(2):156-168.

Crowther MJ, Abrams KR, Lambert PC. Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data. The Stata Journal 2013;13(1):165-184.


Crowther MJ, Abrams KR, Lambert PC. Flexible parametric joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data. Statistics in Medicine 2012;31(30):4456-4471.

Ferreira ML, Herbert RD, Crowther MJ, Verhagen A, Sutton AJ. When is a further clinical trial justified? British Medical Journal 2012;345:e5913.

Crowther MJ, Lambert PC. Simulating complex survival data. The Stata Journal 2012;12(4):674-687.

Hinchliffe SR, Rutherford MJ, Crowther MJ, Nelson CP, Lambert PC. Should relative survival be used in the analysis of lung cancer data? British Journal of Cancer 2012;106:1854-1859.

Crowther MJ, Riley RD, Staessen JA, Wang J, Gueyffier F, Lambert PC. Individual patient data meta-analysis of survival data using Poisson regression models. BMC Medical Research Methodology 2012;12:34.

Crowther MJ, Langan D, Sutton AJ. Graphical augmentations to the funnel plot to assess the impact of a new study on an existing meta-analysis. The Stata Journal 2012;12(4):605-622.

Ara R, Blake L, Gray L, Hernandez M, Crowther MJ, et al. What is the clinical and cost-effectiveness of using drugs in treating obese patients in primary care? A systematic review. Health Technology Assessment 2012;16(5).


Latimer N, Crowther MJ, Abrams KR, Lambert PC, Morden JP. Assessing methods for dealing with treatment crossover in clinical trials: A follow-up simulation study. A report prepared for the Pharmaceutical Oncology Initiative 2014.

Latimer N, Wailoo AJ, Abrams KR, Lambert PC, Morden JP, Crowther MJ. Methods for adjusting survival estimates in the presence of treatment crossover - a simulation study and real world data analysis. A report prepared for the Pharmaceutical Oncology Initiative 2012.

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